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Week 6: Predictability and Consistency

• Why Predictability and Consistency are Important
• “What do you want me to do?”
• “What works here?”
• How to Add Predictability to Your Dog’s Life
• Homework: BAT Set-Up for Frustration

WHY PREDICTABILITY AND CONSISTENCY ARE IMPORTANT

“Trust is built with consistency.”

-Lincoln Chafee

When we act in a consistent way, our dogs are able to predict when good things will happen to them, when aversive things like blood draws must happen to them, and when they do and do not have control over these events.

A lot of the frustration behavior that we see from dogs comes from an inability to predict what will happen to them, and when. There are multiple types of predictability, including temporal predictability (an event happens at a certain time of day or after a set duration) and signaled predictability (a stimulus precedes the event).

When animals are given the option of choosing between predictable and unpredictable aversive or appetitive events, the opt for predictability. This doesn’t mean there is no stress if they know shock is coming, but they are able to handle it more easily, in the short term, if they know it’s coming. In particular, what seems to be the most useful is to know when something IS NOT going to happen. This applies to both appetitive experiences (like snack time) and aversive experiences (like cleaning a bird’s cage).

Bassett & Buchanan-Smith (2007) have an intriguing collection of information in their survey paper discussing predictability and humane care. One thing that jumped out at me was a summary of Carlstead’s 1986 work, which demonstrated that unreliable signaling can lead to frustration behavior at mealtimes. Here’s an example at mealtime with pigs. Does it sound familiar?

Carlstead manipulated the signalled predictability of feeding by changing the reliability of signals (in the form of a bell) announcing the arrival of food to pigs. Food was delivered, from an automated hopper, on an unpredictable temporal schedule with the bell being the only information available to the pigs concerning the onset of feeding. The animals initially received food preceded by reliable signals. However, when these signals became unreliable, low predictability was found to be associated with frustration, which led to aggression and increased competition for food.

In a second experiment, pigs consistently receiving unreliable feeding signals showed a significant increase in aggressive interactions, mainly following unexpected disturbances in the environment. The author suggests that this increase was because pigs exposed to unreliable feeding signals treated these unexpected environmental noises as potential feeding signals. The failure of these ‘signals’ to be followed by food led to increased frustration and aggression. This did not occur in pigs which received reliable signals, however, as there was only one unmistakable signal associated with feeding, and therefore unexpected noises were not responded to as unreliable indicators of feeding time.

Also of note: when something is predictable and then stops being so, it’s even more frustrating than if there is no predictability in the first place. Ponder that in terms of rehoming, board and train, or people who attend classes and then stop doing so.

If you are a trainer, really get that message of predictability across to your clients. If you learn nothing else from this course, please learn this big: help your dog feel a sense of control and predictability, and you’ll eliminate most, if not all, of your issues.

Here’s a list of recommendations from Bassett & Buchanan-Smith (2007). [Click here for their full paper, “Effects of predictability on the welfare of captive animals.”]

Recommendations for animal management and husbandry

1. There should be a thorough evaluation of both positive and negative husbandry and management routines in terms of temporal and (often unintentional) signaled predictability, and welfare should be assessed prior to positive and negative events.
2. If possible, negative (aversive) events should be made temporally predictable, and any unreliable (often unintentional) signals should be removed where feasible.
3. A unique and reliable signal to indicate the onset of an aversive event should also be introduced to decrease stress, but the beneficial effects should be scientifically demonstrated before widespread practice is adopted. Care must be taken to ensure the signal only refers to the individual for whom the event will take place, and not be a (unreliable) signal for the whole group.
4. Training animals can be a useful management tool to provide improved care of captive animals. Positive reinforcement training increases the control and predictability the animals have and should be used to provide welfare benefits. [This is where the More Please Signal comes in]
5. Every effort should be made to avoid delays to events occurring on a (usually) reliable temporally predictable schedule, as delays (loss of temporal predictability) have a negative impact on welfare.
6. Food-Anticipatory Activity (some of which is undesirable) is primarily seen with animals which are food restricted (and fed on a predictable schedule), constituting an additional welfare concern to this practice.
7. If possible, temporally unpredictable feeding should be introduced (although note that the benefits have only been demonstrated in a limited range of species). Unreliable signals relating to feeding should be eliminated if possible, and a unique reliable signal introduced.

The good news is that means we don’t have to feed at the same exact time every day, we just need to have a way for our dogs to predict when it’s happening. The more control they have over the process, the better. For example if your dog gets that food by foraging in the yard or by waiting patiently in a stay as you prepare the meal, it will be less stressful than just hopping around and barking in frustration.

Another piece of information on predictability that might be interesting comes from a study of fish (Vindas, et al., 2014). The smaller fish in the group are generally “submissive” in the sense that they give others priority access to food or other recourses if there is a conflict. The smaller fish were split into two groups. The experimental group was basically frustrated before an encounter with a larger fish in a contest for food. The frustration was created by having a signal that normally predicted food NOT lead to food that time. The control group was not frustrated in this way prior to the encounter. There was significantly more aggression from the smaller fish who had been frustrated first.

Keep this in mind in terms of resource guarding between dogs. Predictability is your friend in multi-dog households. When you’re handing out treats, for example, say the name of the dog who is going to receive it. This becomes a signal to that dog that food is coming, but is also a signal to the others that the food is not for them. It’s predictable.

Resources

Bassett, L., & Buchanan-Smith, H. M. (2007). Effects of predictability on the welfare of captive animals. Applied Animal Behaviour Science, 102(3), 223-245.

Vindas, M. A., Johansen, I. B., Vela-Avitua, S., Nørstrud, K. S., Aalgaard, M., Braastad, B. O., & Øverli, Ø. (2014). Frustrative reward omission increases aggressive behaviour of inferior fighters. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 281(1784), 201403.

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